A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
