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New Yorkers will discover who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The contest has become an acrimonious showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, should the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as polls show the present version of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a DSA convention in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd